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| We should all move to Awesome Sweden! |
Sweden has so far recorded more than 400 coronavirus deaths — about 10 times as many as Australia. Its population is around half that of Australia. But its Government is standing by its relatively relaxed approach to the pandemic. Rather than telling people what to do — or, worse, telling them off — the Government is asking Swedes to do the right thing, and giving them the liberty to prove they are responsible citizens.
While the Government has taken some measures, such as limiting social gatherings to 50 people and closing high schools and universities, experts say it is betting on Sweden's "social obedience". But that's a lot of trust to put in your people at a time of global pandemic, and a gamble that could have catastrophic consequences.
By his own account, Mr Magnusson, 30, is an example that the 'recommendations, not restrictions' approach can work. "I used to go to the gym three to four times a week, but I haven't been there since the pandemic ramped up," he said. "Instead of going to the gym I usually go out for a run. I'm also cautious when out and about by keeping my distance from other people, and I haven't been out in bars since the virus started."
He said venues in his home of Ostersund, a town of 60,000 people in the middle of the country, had been "pretty much dead" for weeks now. But when 30-year-old Stefan Nordenberg is strolling the streets of the Swedish capital of Stockholm with his son, they're anything but.
"I was out last weekend, walking, just having a look at a number of bars, and it was actually surprisingly busy," he said. "But overall, even though everyone basically could be out, contaminating everything and infecting everyone else, the very vast majority of Swedes are staying at home."
Mr Nordenberg said Swedes don't share the same kind of scepticism towards government that citizens in other countries do — therefore they're more likely to do the right thing, without being threatened with punitive measures. "If the Government or the ministry that's in charge of people's health, if they say you should stay at home because that's what's best for all of us, people believe that. So, I should stay at home," he said.
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| Social Distancing Swedish Stlye? |
If Mr Nordenberg has his doubts, his 74-year-old father Richard, a former navy pilot, puts unwavering trust in the Swedish Government's "very reasonable strategy". He said rather than isolating the whole society, the Government has put the onus on the elderly, asking them to stay home.
And he does, with a few exceptions. Instead of meeting up with friends around town, they now hold video calls. But he hasn't refrained from taking the tube and visiting some family members. "I'm not worried. I have no diseases, no weaknesses. I'm very healthy. I'm sporting," he says.
Magnus Barnell thinks the world will benefit from trying different approaches for any future events. "If it shows that our approach ultimately also can work, then it means that we can return back to normal society," he said. "Whereas if it shows it doesn't work, then you will see more states becoming very restrictive [in future events]."
His wife, Nele, hopes that if at any point the Government realises the country is on the wrong trajectory, it changes course immediately. "But at this point I don't think they have to take any harsher measures. I do believe that if they see things are changing, I believe that they would change their strategy," she said.
Experts say the Swedish Government is operating on the basis that it's beyond the capabilities of most societies to stop the spread of the virus without a vaccine. The Prime Minister's department told the ABC that in addition to introducing public gathering limits, the country had encouraged social distancing, especially among the elderly, and banned visits to aged care facilities.
"We want measures that work in the long run, since this pandemic likely will continue for months," the department said. "Our approach is flexible, and we will implement stricter measures if necessary. At this point, our assessment is that people are changing their behaviour and [following] the recommendations."
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| No need to shut down the fricking economy just because of a little Chinese virus. |
"I'm not sure it's the right strategy, but it'll be easier to maintain our strategy in the long run, compared to many other countries where they early on had a lockdown," she said. For a lockdown to be effective, and to avoid possible second waves of the virus, people must stay home for a year or 18 months, says Lund University Professor and epidemiologist Peter Nilsson.
That, he said, is "unthinkable" and could lead to societal breakdown. "Imagine you have a country with a complete lockdown — everybody is isolated for three, four months," he said. "Then you lift it. The epidemic is still there. It will spread again. This is the problem."
"Besides that, a total lockdown will hurt the economy. If our society is damaged, there will be less money for health care in the future. People will not tolerate a complete lockdown for a very long time because they will have a mental breakdown. They will get desperate."
Genetic epidemiologist Professor Paul Frank said the rate of the pandemic in Sweden did not mean the Government was letting the virus run its course. But the Lund University expert is worried people are getting complacent.
"When I look around, what I see are gatherings of older people," he said. "I've seen local hotels having wine-tasting evenings indoors with older people present. What I don't see is a proper protection of vulnerable populations in this country.
"And that worries me because if you have a strategy where you're pursuing the spread of the virus to reach herd immunity, which some would argue Sweden is doing, then a very important part of that strategy has to be to protect the vulnerable to prevent them from getting infected. If you're not doing that, you'll have fairly widespread deaths amongst those vulnerable populations. I'm very, very worried about that."
(From Wikipedia: Herd immunity - also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity - is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population are immune to an infection, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.
In a population in which a large number of individuals are immune, chains of infection are likely to be disrupted, which stops or slows the spread of disease. The greater the proportion of individuals in a community who are immune, the smaller the probability that those who are not immune will come into contact with an infectious individual.)
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