(Staff article from the ABC NEWS on August 22, 2021.)
Under National Cabinet's four-phase pathway out of
the pandemic, the states and territories will open their borders and use
lockdowns more sparingly once 70 to 80 per cent of Australians over 16 are
inoculated.
But a split has emerged with some premiers arguing the modelling underpinning that plan assumes case numbers would be much lower than they are at the moment. Mr Morrison has played down those concerns, adding the Doherty Institute would be providing updated advice to National Cabinet this week.
"The advice
we have from the Doherty Institute is the starting point does not ultimately
alter the conclusions of the modelling," Mr Morrison told the ABC's
Insiders program. Asked whether Australia would be able to achieve COVID zero
again, Mr Morrison said: "I think that's highly unlikely" and added
"case numbers are not the whole story".
"The point
is that we need to suppress the virus as best as we can in phase A of the
national plan," he said. "The national plan then transfers our focus
from case numbers to issues of hospitalisation, serious illness, ICU and things
of that nature. At 70 per cent vaccination rates and 80 per cent vaccination
rates, then Australia is able to move out of what is really an unsustainable
situation."
Mr Morrison warned Australia "can't live with
lockdowns forever" and that at some point, the states and territories
needed to "change gears". According to the Doherty Institute, which
modelled the vaccine targets, Australia has the capacity to achieve 70 per cent
vaccine coverage by November 1 and 80 per cent by November 22.
The Institute's
Jodie McVernon said Australians were "exhausted by the uncertainty"
of the pandemic and that vaccines were "the only pathway out" of
restrictions. "What our modelling found was as vaccination coverage
increases, vaccination does much more of the heavy lifting of the public health
response," she told Sky.
Opposition
Leader Anthony Albanese argued Australians were confused about what National
Cabinet's plan would actually mean. "Australians want less confusion and
more leadership from this Prime Minister, and yet what they get is boasting,
consistently trying to paint a rosier picture than the one that is there,"
he said.
"The
Doherty advice isn't just 'open at 70 per cent', it has some assumptions in
there and it's predicated upon low numbers of cases. If there's a change in
that, then that should be communicated."
CMO insists modelling does not need overhaul
Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly backed Mr Morrison's view, arguing that while the Doherty modelling was based on lower case numbers once vaccination targets were met, it also assumed cases would rise once restrictions began easing.
Professor Kelly
said National Cabinet had asked for the modelling to be reviewed, however he
did not expect major changes to be made. "Does this need to go back to the
drawing board? The answer is absolutely not," he said.
"The
assumptions of course with all modelling can be changed and sensitivity
analysis, that's the technical term for what is being done by the Doherty
Institute, can be relatively easily done. The general principles, and yes I
have had a discussion with Jodie McVernon about this, remain the same. The
model itself remains the same, it's a tweak to the assumptions."
Professor Kelly also warned it was not sustainable
to expect that jurisdictions which had previously managed to keep COVID-19 out
could do so indefinitely. "Even in New Zealand, which I would say would be
the poster jurisdiction for elimination, and they have very clearly and
recently stated that that remains their aim, are now coping with an outbreak in
Auckland and beyond," he said.
So far, about 30
per cent of adults have been fully vaccinated with more than 300,000 doses now
being administered daily. All Australians older than 16 are set to become
eligible for a Pfizer jab at the end of August, while Mr Morrison is hoping
access will be expanded to those aged 12 and over before the end of the year.