(Leong Wai Kit’s artice from Channel News Asia (CNA) on 10 July 2024)
CNA Explains: Myanmar’s ex-president visited China,
followed by its junta No 2. What’s the play? Beijing has been regularly
inviting Myanmar’s junta-appointed ministers to China on various official
visits.
But it was a late June visit by ex-president Thein Sein that sparked international headlines. And just over a week later, the Myanmar military leadership’s No 2 man Soe Win made an official trip to attend a forum in Qingdao in Shandong province. This made him the highest-ranking military leader to visit China in an official capacity since the 2021 coup.
What’s behind the timing of the visits?
The timeline of
events would suggest that China seems to favour Myanmar’s former president over
any of the current leaders in the military. Or that Thein Sein’s visit paved
the way for Soe Win, who’s deputy army chief - and deputy prime minister under
the State Administration Council formed after the coup.
But neither is
the case, according to sources close to the Myanmar military. For starters, CNA
understands that since the military coup which ousted Aung San Suu Kyi and her
democratically elected government, Beijing has adopted an unspoken policy of
inviting junta-appointed ministers via multilateral rather than exclusive,
bilateral platforms.
This would
explain why junta ministers have only gone to China for forums, conferences and
events involving other countries’ participation. Late last year, specifically
two months after the Operation 1027 military offensive kicked off, Beijing
began stepping up engagements with Myanmar.
The moniker
refers to Oct 27, the date when a trio of powerful ethnic resistance armies
launched large-scale, coordinated attacks that caught the Myanmar army
off-guard. Since then, the ethnic armies have seized control of various
territories from the junta.
In January,
China brokered a ceasefire between the fighting groups, though the ethnic
armies have since accused the junta of violating the truce and causing civilian
casualties. “Beijing intended to engage deputy army chief Soe Win and would
have invited him to China in the first quarter of the year,” a source told CNA.
“But back then,
(military chief) Min Aung Hlaing had trust issues with Soe Win – that disrupted
the engagement effort and China’s invitation. Meanwhile, via the diplomatic
track (of) engagement, Thein Sein was able to make the trip to Beijing on Jun
28,” the source added.
As to why China is open to engaging the junta
leadership but has yet to officially host Min Aung Hlaing, another source said
Beijing would not do so unless Myanmar’s No 1 can produce firm dates for an
election – which he initially promised to hold in August 2023 – or lay out
concrete plans for the country’s transition towards democracy.
What's on the table?
Thein Sein’s Jun
28 trip was to mark the 70th anniversary of China’s Five Principles of Peaceful
Coexistence or guidelines for foreign relations. Thein Sein, a former general
himself who was Myanmar’s president from 2011 to 2016, attended a conference
where Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in a speech that Beijing would not become
a “strong” state that would try to dominate others.
Thein Sein also
attended the 60th anniversary back in 2014. This year, on the sidelines of the
event, he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, with Myanmar state media
reporting that the two exchanged views on friendly relations and cooperation
between the countries.
A source told CNA that Wang had asked Thein Sein to
persuade Min Aung Hlaing to hand over power and form an interim government to
pave the way for elections.
Meanwhile on Sat
(Jul 6), second-in-command Soe Win arrived in China for the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation's Green Development Forum. Myanmar state media said he held
bilateral talks with China officials and discussed issues including border
stability, weeding out online gambling and drug-smuggling, as well as boosting
trade between both countries.
Observers have
noted China’s unhappiness with the junta for its inability to crack down on
online scam syndicates – which allegedly involve Chinese nationals – operating
near the Myanmar border.
The Myanmar
military has also been unable to stop clashes up north and near the China
border, which have resulted in deaths and injuries on the Chinese side. Soe Win’s trip takes place just as the junta
is struggling to fend off renewed fighting with ethnic armies. The general is
likely to seek China’s help and support in suppressing his opponents.
What's the significance of the trips?
If there’s one
thing the visits by Thein Sein and Soe Win have made clear, it’s that China has
not abandoned the junta, said Peace Research Institute Oslo researcher Amara
Thiha. “The visits indicate that China is willing to support the central
administration and its efforts towards transition,” he said.
He added Beijing
was likely also using the visits to quell anti-China sentiments within Myanmar,
strengthen ties and fix any issues of distrust.
While Soe Win’s in China, he’ll also likely need to clarify some of
Myanmar’s positions.
“Honestly, (he)
has a lot of explaining to do to China – its election plan, the escalation of
fighting and the meeting with US in Hanoi,” said Stimson Centre senior fellow
and co-director of the East Asia Programme and director of the China programme
Yun Sun.
In June, United States assistant secretary of state
for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink reportedly met senior
Myanmar naval officer Kyaw Lin Zaw in Vietnam. No details emerged from the reported meeting
but it has prompted talk of a possible US-led mediation process. The meeting
was also reportedly given the go-ahead by countries in the region – as well as
China.
What else could happen in the coming months?
Sources told CNA
to also look out for China demonstrating its commitment to helping the Myanmar
military. One source close to both diplomatic and military circles in Myanmar
said Beijing had already agreed to “support Myanmar’s State Administration
Council with armaments and has committed to preventing the (Myanmar leadership)
from failing”, amid strong resistance.
Other sources
said more details of this deal would be unveiled in the coming months. By
end-July, Myanmar’s state of emergency - already extended five times - will
expire. Many expect Min Aung Hlaing to continue holding on to power and
delaying elections.
This would also
be a time for China to closely watch Myanmar’s next move – whether it will heed
Beijing’s call to hasten the peace process and transition to democracy, with
concrete timelines for an election, remains the key question.
Did China Order The Shan-Man Operation?
Myanma Army's Fake-News Social Media oulets, while the Myanmar Army itself is keeping total-media-blackout on the Operation-1027(Part-2), are now accusing that China ordered the Oparation 1027-2 including the Shan-Man Operation; after Myanmar Dictator Min Aung Hlaing has rejected the demands-ultimatum brought to him personally by China’s
special envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun on June-18 recently. Deng, who is also a former ambassador to ASEAN, met junta boss Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw.
Nobody really knew what exactly was in the Chinese Ultimatum, but the widely popular guess is China wants Min Aung Hlaing to resign immediately and let the influential people in Myanmar including Thein Sein and Soe Win and the Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar form an interim government to de-escalate the ongoing civil war and then call a general election.
After MAH's outright and bitter rejection of their ultimatum Chinese had sent the brigades of armed-volunteers in TNLA and MNDAA uniforms to immediately start the so-called Operation-1027(Part-2). Now Lashio has almost fallen and Mandalay is on the brink of collapse.
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| Deng Xijun met junta foreign minister Than Swe. |
