(Htet Khaing Min’s post from the EURASIA REVIEW on 14 February 2025.)
Blackout Nation: How Myanmar’s Energy Crisis Is
Crippling Lives – Analysis: In Myanmar, darkness no longer just falls after
sunset—it has become an everyday reality, an uninvited guest that lingers well
beyond nightfall.
Key Takeaways: Severe Power Shortages Cripple
Myanmar – Blackouts for up to 20 hours disrupt businesses, healthcare, and
daily life, worsening economic hardships. Gas Dependency and Infrastructure
Damage – Failing gas plants, stalled solar projects, and grid attacks force
reliance on costly alternatives. Urgent Reforms Needed – Expanding renewables,
repairing infrastructure, and improving governance are crucial for energy
stability.
As the country grapples with one of its most severe power shortages in decades, the lights of progress have flickered and dimmed under the shadow of the military junta’s regime. With rolling blackouts, widespread infrastructure damage, and a fractured power grid, Myanmar’s citizens find themselves in the dark—literally and figuratively.
Widespread socio-economic challenges, including
higher household expenses, job losses, business closures, disruptions in
education and healthcare, rising poverty, and long-term economic and
environmental damage, are growing due to persistent power shortages. This
article examines the causes and far-reaching consequences of Myanmar’s energy
crisis, offering insights into the political, social, and economic toll it
continues to exact on the nation.
1. Background of Myanmar Power Industry
Over the past decade, Myanmar’s power industry has
experienced notable growth, followed by an abrupt decline following the 2021
military coup. Between 2015 and 2021, Myanmar saw significant strides in
electricity generation and electrification. The country’s energy infrastructure
expanded with foreign direct investment (FDI) support and progressive
government policies like the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan 2018-2030.
The total installed power capacity grew from 5,125
MW to 6,830 MW, while power output increased from 15,965 GWh to 23,643 GWh
annually. Gas-fired power plants like Thaketa Power Plant (400 MW), Thanlyin
Power Plant (350 MW), and Thilawa Power Project (1,250 MW, expected online in
2024) were developed, and the electrification rate surged, benefiting both
urban and rural areas.
However, the 2021 military coup marked the
beginning of a rapid decline in Myanmar’s electricity production. Major foreign
investors exited the market, conflicts disrupted infrastructure, and economic
instability set in, bringing the country’s energy growth to a halt. These
disruptions have since spiraled into one of the worst power crises in Myanmar’s
history, one that continues to have far-reaching social and economic
implications.
2. Brief Situation of Power Resources
In a crisis, Myanmar’s energy sector faces widespread disruptions affecting all primary power sources. As demand outpaces supply, the country’s energy infrastructure faces mounting challenges. Let’s take a closer look at the current state of power resources.
2.1 Natural Gas: Declining Dominance
Once the backbone of Myanmar’s power generation,
supplying 55% of Myanmar’s electricity in 2022, natural gas generation has
plummeted due to supply shortages and investor exits post-2021. Foreign
companies like Voltalia, Posco, Total Energies, Chevron, and VPower ceased
their operations due to political instability, ethical concerns, economic
mismanagement, security risks, and financial losses, further weakening the
energy sector.
The shutdown of VPower’s Thilawa (350 MW) and
Thaketa (400 MW) LNG plants in July 2021 resulted in a 1,200 MW capacity loss.
Gas-fired plants operate below capacity, dropping efficiency from 17% in 2023
to 19% in 2022. State-owned plants struggle with rationing, while private
facilities receive priority.
2.2. Hydropower: Overuse and Declining Efficiency
Hydropower, accounting for 43.4% of the country’s
electricity in 2022 and almost 62% in 2023, has become the fallback as gas
declines. Despite an estimated 100,000 MW potential, installed capacity remains
at only 3,262 MW. Major plants like Yeywa (790 MW) and Shweli-1 (400 MW) are
disrupted by conflicts and transmission damage. The Baluchaung cascade plants
(243 MW) are in decline, with Baluchaung 1 and 3 no longer operational.
Overuse has stressed water resources, causing
seasonal fluctuations. The Nation’s heavy reliance on hydropower leads to
severe electricity shortages during the dry season when water levels drop,
reducing generation capacity. In 2022, maintenance shutdowns of key hydropower
units, declining gas production, and halted LNG imports worsenedpower cuts,
highlighting the urgent need for energy diversification.
2.3. Solar: Limited Impact and Stalled Expansion
Myanmar’s solar capacity is minimal, with only six
operational plants generating 182 MW. Government efforts to scale up solar
through IPP tenders have largely failed, with only 142 MW commissioned out of a
planned 2,150 MW. Most projects post-2021 remain stalled or canceled. Even
functional solar plants provide inconsistent generation and are limited to
daylight hours.
2.4. Coal: Minimal Contribution, Environmental
Concerns
Coal power remains marginal at 0.5% of total
generation, with just two operational plants (138 MW). Myanmar has 488.7
million tons of coal reserves, yet only 1% has been confirmed, limiting its
immediate contribution to the energy mix despite the potential. Environmental
concerns have stalled coal expansion, with coal-related emissions accounting
for 5.1% of total power sector emissions in 2022.
2.5. Power Grid: Conflict and Infrastructure Decay
The national grid has suffered 229 attacks since
2021, severely disrupting transmission. In early 2025, power generation fell
below 2,000 MW per day, far from the 4,400 MW demand. Yangon, Mandalay, and
Naypyidaw endure blackouts lasting 5-20 hours daily. Power distribution remains
unequal, with Yangon receiving 48%, Mandalay 17%, and the rest of the country
35%.
2.6. Mini-Grids: Rural Electrification at Risk
Developed under the National Electrification Plan
(NEP), 73 mini-grids serve22,500 households and 15,800 public facilities.
However, sustainability is threatened by conflicts, theft, and soaring fuel
costs, which have tripled since 2021. Fixed tariffs fail to cover operational
expenses, causing financial distress for operators and frequent outages for
rural communities.
2.7 Worsening Current Nationwide Power Shortage
As of early 2025, Myanmar’s power generation has
plunged to around 2,800 MW daily, meeting just 50-55% of demand. Peak output
sometimes drops below 2,000 MW, causing severe blackouts—up to 20 hours daily
in major cities like Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. Rural and
conflict-affected areas face near-constant outages.
In Yangon, power cuts begin as early as 1 AM, with
electricity available for only eight hours daily. Businesses and households
increasingly rely on solar panels, charcoal stoves, and generators, further
straining the economy and infrastructure.
Recently, on 5th February 2025, Thailand cut power
to Myanmar scam compounds linked to forced labor and fraud. Still, some remain
operational using generators and satellite internet, while diplomatic efforts
with China and Myanmar aim to curb these crimes.
3. Socioeconomic Impacts
As a result, this persistent power shortage has
caused severe socio-economic repercussions across Myanmar at every level.
Household Hardships: Families face cooking, water
access, and refrigeration issues, raising daily expenses.
Job Losses: Power outages force businesses to cut
operations, leading to unemployment, especially in industrial zones.
Business Struggles: High generator costs raise
production expenses, forcing some factories to shut down.
Education & Healthcare Disruptions: Schools and
hospitals struggle without stable electricity, affecting learning and medical
services.
Transportation Disruptions: Power shortages limit CNG supply, reducing public transport availability.
Rising Poverty: Limited electricity reduces income
opportunities, increases living costs, and hinders progress in education and
healthcare.
Long-Term Damage: Development slows, investment
declines, and reliance on unreliable energy sources worsens environmental and
health risks.
4. Junta’s Mitigation Action Fell Short
In response to the crisis, the military junta has
attempted short-term fixes like infrastructure repairs and LNG projects, but
sanctions and technical issues have slowed progress. Hydropower overuse has
worsened water shortages, reducing capacity. Long-term plans for new hydro and
solar plants remain stalled, with pre-coup projects largely unfulfilled.
Despite doubling electricity tariffs, revenue has not improved power generation
or grid stability.
On the other hand, the National Unity Government
(NUG)’s ability to address Myanmar’s energy crisis in liberated areas is
hindered by the ongoing fragmentation among resistance forces, the lack of
participation from key ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and the challenge of
establishing inclusive, accountable governance systems necessary for
sustainable energy infrastructure.
5. Future Prospects and Consequences
The power crisis persists without addressing these
governance inefficiencies and investing in renewables, threatening severe
economic, social, and political consequences. Economically, industrial output
will decline as businesses face high costs of diesel generators, deterring
foreign investment.
Socially, the crisis will disrupt healthcare,
education, and water supply, worsening poverty and inequality. The country’s
infrastructure and economic systems may suffer lasting damage, reversing years
of progress. Politically, the junta’s failure to address the crisis could fuel
public dissatisfaction and civil unrest, deepening instability and challenging
its legitimacy, further exacerbating Myanmar’s decline.
6. Mitigation Plan
To address this alarming crisis, Myanmar must adopt
a multi-pronged approach. The immediate priority is the restoration of
infrastructure, focusing on repairing damaged transmission lines and
rehabilitating key gas plants. Expanding renewable energy sources, particularly
solar, wind, and hydropower, is crucial for reducing the nation’s dependency on
gas and mitigating future power shortages.
Moreover, Myanmar’s energy policy must be reformed
to attract foreign investment and improve governance. An independent Energy
Regulatory Commission could ensure transparency, boost investor confidence, and
combat corruption. Strengthening the financial management of the energy sector
will also be vital for sustainable growth.
In the longer term, Myanmar should explore regional
energy cooperation, particularly with neighboring countries like Laos and
Thailand, to ease supply constraints and expand the grid. For instance, Laos
and Myanmar are advancing a 2024 MOU on power cooperation to supply 300-400 MW
via northern grids.
Still, past struggles with domestic energy projects
and ongoing feasibility studies will determine pricing and implementation
within two years. Mini-grids and decentralized solutions must be prioritized to
ensure that rural areas continue to have access to reliable energy.
Ultimately, political stability is key to the
success of any energy reform. Without a return to peace and stability, foreign
investments, technical expertise, and infrastructure improvements will remain
out of reach, prolonging Myanmar’s energy crisis.
(Dr. Htet Khaing Min, a medical doctor, is a Junior Research Fellow at the Sustainability Lab of the Shwetaungthagathu Reform Initiative Centre (SRIc). He recently led Remote Health Projects, focusing on Community Health Worker programs in the border regions of Naga and Karen States.)
