Will Bangladesh be under water by 2100? |
Reading James Hansen's book, Storms of my grandchildren; the truth about the coming climate catastrophe and our last chance to save humanity (published by Bloomsbury, 2009) is
quite an experience.
Dr Hansen is no scaremongering quack, but one of the world's most respected climate scientists and former director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.
Dr Hansen is no scaremongering quack, but one of the world's most respected climate scientists and former director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.
His
book predicts the end of Bangladesh through global warming.
The average educated citizen could perhaps
be forgiven for thinking that global warming is a relatively minor problem; how
can individuals take it seriously when the media and the world's governments
ignore it?
As Dr. Hansen elaborates, that is because
the supposedly democratic systems of government now commonplace have simply
resulted in the best governments that money can buy. It turns out that the oil,
gas and coal industries have more than enough money to bend practically any
government to their will with promises of cheap energy, industrial growth and
jobs.
Dr. Hansen gives a personal account of how
the same Bush administration tried to silence him as well as the rest of NASA
on the issue of global warming, going so far as to remove any responsibility to
study and protect the Earth from NASA's vision statement. The truth is that
every day we continue to burn fossil fuels, the likelihood of catastrophic
climate change increases.
Perhaps many people have heard and shrugged
off the findings of the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) which
forecasts a likely sea level rise of only a metre or two in the next century.
However, Dr. Hansen points out that the IPCC estimate is most likely
drastically underestimated, as geological records tell us that sea level rise
is likely to be much higher.
It should be mentioned that the focus of
all international climate change negotiations is to limit global warming to 2
degrees. This is because 2 degrees warming is the threshold that will cause
severe consequences for much of the world, not just low-lying areas like
Bangladesh.
Bangladeshi illegals caught at Kalay Town of Chin State in Burma (2012). |
This logic virtually ensures that actual
warming will be 2 degrees, since that is by definition what all countries will
find it rational to aim for in terms of their carbon dioxide emissions
reductions. In that case, Bangladesh has effectively been doomed by the global
community, which shows no sign so far of even ensuring that global warming is
bound to the 2 degree target. Current levels of carbon emissions could easily
cause 3 or more degrees of global warming and even more catastrophic effects;
not that it would matter for Bangladesh. We'd already be underwater at 2
degrees.
In that case, what are the options for
Bangladesh's 150 million people? The wealthy and educated will always find some
new country to migrate to. The lower 95% of the population will face a grim
end, though it may take a century or so for the full effects of global warming
to kick in.
If climate change really becomes as bad as
Hansen says it will, then the only real way for Bangladesh to adapt is to
drastically reduce the population in a controlled way for the next century.
This
could be done through a draconian one-child policy, similar to China, but that
would be extremely unpopular and politically difficult. However, global warming
may leave us with no agreeable alternatives.
Massive Bengali-Muslim crowd on Burma border. |
The idea of adaptation to 80% of Bangladesh
going underwater is simply absurd. If the rest of the world had any real concern
for Bangladesh's survival, it would admit that adaptation to such drastic
change is impossible, and try to limit global warming to a level that would
ensure our existence.
This would need to be considerably less
than 1 degree Celsius, requiring almost completely stopping burning of most
fossil fuels very quickly. This is the only happy solution; all fossil fuels,
especially coal, need to be phased out within the next decade. They need to be
replaced by renewable energy such as as solar or wind, as well as nuclear
power; the latter is the only immediately available non-fossil fuel based
electrical source for large industrial power requirements.
Dr. Hansen's book is uniquely personal,
narrating how the birth of his grandchildren forced him to accept responsibility
for trying to safeguard their future by becoming a anti-global-warming
activist. Bangladeshis similarly need to start worrying more about the world in
which their future children and grandchildren may be born into.
Bengali-Muslim illegals caught crossing into India (2011). |
(The writer holds a Master of Theological Studies from Harvard Divinity School, and is author of the website www.liberalislam.net.)
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