(Jason Tower’s post from The U.S. PEACE INSTUTUTE on 5 December 2024.)
Myanmar’s Resistance Manages to Defy Chinese
Pressure — For Now: Since August,
China has tried to weaken Myanmar’s resistance forces while offering legitimacy
to the junta. Many elements of the resistance are defying Chinese demands, but
tension and instability are rising. Myanmar may become a test case for more
robust Chinese security involvement overseas.
In early August, resistance forces in northern
Myanmar delivered yet another historic defeat to the Myanmar military. After
just 35 days of fighting, resistance actors toppled the Myanmar army’s
northeastern command, bringing expansive amounts of territories across northern
Shan State under their control. These developments rippled through Myanmar and
reinvigorated the resistance — but also triggered a dramatic response from the
Chinese Communist government.
Since August, China has unleashed punitive measures targeting key resistance groups, greenlit military airstrikes across northern Myanmar to push ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) out of newly captured territories, and showered Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing with unprecedented levels of legitimacy.