(Billy Ford’s article from the United States Institute of Peace on November-16, 2023)
As the national uprising against Myanmar’s coup
regime has gained strength, a singular question has hovered over the widening
campaign: If this patchwork of ethnic armed groups, deposed elected leaders,
activists and armed defense forces manages to topple the junta, would they be
able to govern, or would the country descend into greater chaos?
That question has gained urgency as recent developments put the military’s staying power in growing doubt. Since October 27, armed resistance groups have seized numerous strategic border crossings along Myanmar’s frontier with China, India and Thailand and routed the army from more than 150 bases or posts.