(Song Danyang’s article from the RFA Mandrin on 16 January 2024.)
When the Three Brotherhood Alliance of rebel groups
in Myanmar started a campaign against junta forces in the northern part of the
country they chose a slogan designed to win support from a fourth potential
ally: China. “Wipe out the scammers, rescue our compatriots,” the group
declared in the message.
China, which shares a border with Kokang, a region in Shan state in northern Myanmar, had expressed increasing frustration with organized crime rings that had been allowed to operate in the area by junta-aligned forces. An estimated 120,000 people are being held in Myanmar against their will. Chinese nationals have both been trafficked by these groups and fleeced by them.
The Myanmar
National Democratic Alliance Army – which along with the Ta'ang National
Liberation Army and the Arakan Army make up the Alliance – had tried and failed
twice before to retake the region. This time, however, Kokang’s capital of
Laukkai fell into rebel hands on Jan. 4.
(Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army hold the group's flag atop a captured Myanmar army armored vehicle, Oct. 28, 2023.)
Since then, China has played a clear role in
mediating a truce between the two sides. But the initial success of the rebel
campaign has led analysts to speculate that it had, in fact, received Chinese
backing.
China’s leaders
may have sought to kill "two birds with one stone,” according to Deng
Yuwen, a political commentator and former journalist – strengthening China’s position in the
region while removing the destabilizing threat presented by the scam compounds.
"The
Chinese government can use the scamming operations as a way to secretly support
local forces … and control the area that way," Deng said. "They solve
the scamming problem and cultivate bold agents of the Chinese state at the same
time," he said, meaning China believes the new leaders of Kokang will
better reflect its interests.
(Chinese police arrest Chinese nationals allegedly involved in online scamming operations in Myanmar, Dec. 10, 2023.)
A ‘king’ and a coup
Kokang has long
been in China’s orbit, and many of its residents are ethnically Chinese. In the
mid-20th century, Kokang served as a base for Myanmar communists.
With the
collapse of the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, local warlord Peng Jiasheng –
whose nickname was "the king of Kokang” – switched his allegiance to the
junta. The military granted the region autonomy and allowed Peng to keep his
military presence in the area, though China remained an important patron.
In 2009, Peng
was ousted in a coup led by his second-in-command, Bai Suocheng, who
consolidated his family's control over the state. Bai allowed government troops
to be stationed in Kokang for the first time while residents were granted
Myanmar nationality. Bai offered sanctuary to criminal groups in return for
huge payouts that also benefited the junta. Eventually, massive, organized scam
operations began to thrive in Kokang.
China pushes back
Last year, the
Chinese government appeared fed up. In August, it took part in a joint
operation with Myanmar and Thailand targeting the scam centers. Over the
intervening months, more than 40,000 Chinese nationals were arrested in Shan
state for involvement with online scams, according to data collected by RFA.
A number of
powerful Kokang business people were arrested at a trade fair in China in
October, and in November, Beijing issued arrest warrants for a well-connected
Kokang politician and three family members on allegations of masterminding an
online scam ring.
China’s Ministry
of Public Security issued arrest warrants for 10 people, including the former
chairman of the Kokang self-administered region, Bai Suocheng [top row, first
left], his son Bai Yingcang [top row, second left] and his daughter Bai Yinglan
[top row, third left]. (The Kokang)
On Dec. 10, China's Ministry of Public Security put
out another wanted list, naming 10 individuals in connection with the scams,
including Bai Suocheng, his grown children and a few junta officials.
The move not
only showed Beijing’s growing impatience with Myanmar's handling of the scam
rings, but signaled that China favored leaders in Kokang more closely aligned
with its national interests.
(China’s Ministry of Public Security issued arrest warrants for 10 people, including the former chairman of the Kokang self-administered region, Bai Suocheng [top row, first left], his son Bai Yingcang [top row, second left] and his daughter Bai Yinglan [top row, third left].)
The prince’s plans
After he had
been dethroned as the king of Kokang, Peng Jiasheng resurfaced as the leader of
the MNDAA, fighting Myanmar forces on occasion without significant success. When
he died in 2022, his son, Peng Denren, took over and immediately made plans to
reclaim control of his father’s lost territory. The Alliance launched
“Operation 1027” – so-called for the on Oct. 27, 2023, date – offensive against
Myanmar military strongholds in northern Myanmar.
Even though the
Alliance remained outnumbered by government troops, the rebel forces scored
several significant victories early on. Its soldiers have since seized more
than 300 military bases, around a dozen towns, and won control of several key
trade routes with the neighboring Chinese province of Yunnan.
(Members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army walk past a Myanmar military base after seizing it during clashes near Laukkaing township in Myanmar’s northern Shan state, Oct. 28, 2023.)
Suspicion over ‘foreign’ experts
Myanmar's junta
chief in November claimed that the ethnic-minority armed groups were getting
outside assistance, according to a report by Agence France-Presse. He said the
rebels had been using "drones with advanced technology" to attack
junta positions and were aided by "foreign drone experts," although
he didn’t specify which country they came from.
Li Jiawen, a
spokesman for the MNDAA, denied the offensive was aided by the Chinese.
"The situation we have today is the result of nearly 70 years of tyranny
by the junta," Li said.
Even China’s tacit approval of the operation is
important, Yun Sun, the director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a
Washington, D.C.-based think tank, said in an interview with RFA. “The biggest
support that China has lended to this organization is to not stop them,” she
said.
Rebel forces
were able to retreat over the border to avoid junta artillery barrages. China
allowed the flow of money and goods in Shan state that helped to sustain the
rebels to continue, Sun said. And there was likely a psychological effect: The
morale of junta forces would have suffered when they realized the difficulty of
sustaining control of the area without China’s approval.
“The fact that
China did not stop them carries a lot of currency,” she said. “It sends a
message … that China is not completely happy with the junta at this time.”
(Ta'ang National Liberation Army fighters prepare to launch a drone during an attack on the Myanmar military’s camp in Namhsan township in Myanmar's northern Shan State, Dec. 12, 2023.)
China mediates
Beijing has
indicated that its chief priority in Myanmar is stability, which has meant
supporting the junta in the broader struggle for control of the country.
“China's
position is very clear,” ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a late December
press conference. “China will not support any party in provoking trouble. A
ceasefire and negotiation are in the interests of all relevant parties in
Myanmar and will also help maintain peace on the China-Myanmar border.”
After a stray
missile landed in a Chinese border town in Yunnan – injuring three Chinese
citizens and prompting a strong rebuke from Beijing – China's vice foreign
minister, Sun Weidong, flew to Myanmar on Jan. 4. He met with junta leader Min
Aung Hlaing and held talks with his Myanmar counterpart, Lun Wu, about the
situation in northern Myanmar.
On the day of
Sun's arrival, the junta announced it would transfer control of the Kokang
Autonomous Region headquarters to the MNDAA. The months-long struggle for
Laukkai had come to an end.
“The formal
cessation of hostilities began two days ago,” MNDAA’s Li Jiawen told RFA on
Jan. 6. “You could still hear some artillery sounds on Jan. 5, but as of today,
the artillery has stopped.”
Videos provided
by sources close to the MNDAA show Myanmar military personnel, with the Myanmar
flag on their chests, handing over weapons and ammunition to the MNDAA before
lining up for withdrawal. Kokang chairman and junta Brig. Gen. Tun Tun Myint
engaged in what appeared to be friendly conversations with his recent enemies.
The analyst Deng
Yuwen said the scene might be an example of junta realpolitik: concede a
hard-to-defend territory and appease a powerful neighbor in the process. “This
place still needs to develop its economy before it can finally be safe,” Deng
said. “If the economy doesn't grow, other issues will arise over time ... which
China doesn't want to see.”
Scam crackdown
The MNDAA emphasizes the restoration of law and order in laying out its plans for Laukkai. Li Jiawen said that efforts to crack down on scam operations are ongoing, while most members of the Bai family and their associates have fled to Myanmar's capital.
“Telecommunications
fraud in Laukkai has been largely eliminated, with only a small number of
remnants,” Li said. “We will continue to investigate and completely root out
telecommunications fraud.”
He also expressed gratitude to China: “This has
definitely been fruitful, and China's mediation and involvement will continue
in our negotiations with the Myanmar military. I believe that, under the
vigorous mediation of the Chinese government, we will have a favorable outcome
to those, too.”
The junta
military meanwhile seems intent on getting back on China’s good side. After
Taiwanese voters backed a political party that supports an independent Taiwan
in the recent presidential race, the junta issued a statement declaring its
commitment to a “one China policy.” Myanmar’s military rulers oppose “any
separatist activities aimed at ‘Taiwan independence’ and foreign interference
in the internal affairs of other states,” the junta said in the statement.
