China’s North-Burma & US’s South-Burma?

      (Mainly based on Ye Lin Thu’s posts from his facebook pages on 22 January 2024.)

Deciding the fate of poor Burma?

A Bangladesh newspaper The Dhaka Tribune reported on 21 January that Myanmar Government is advancing the Chinese-sponsored Kyauk Phyu Deep Seaport amid the nationwide armed-conflicts which are getting severe day by day.

Despite the worsening conflicts currently occurring in Rakhine State, Communist China together with Myanmar is marching on strongly to complete the 1,700-kilometer long China-Myanmar Economic Corridor connecting Kunming in Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean. Kyauk Phyu port is the terminus of that corridor ending (or starting) in the Bay of Bengal in Indian Ocean.

Irrawaddy Media said that the deep seaport project is an important part of the Myanmar economic agreement on the Trans-Burma Economic Corridor connecting the Indian Ocean to the Kunmin City of land-locked Yunnan State in Southern China. An official media conference was held recently after signing an agreement for the Kyauk Phyu Deepsea Port Project.

Construction and development of the Deep Seaport and the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is a joint venture between the China and Myanmar, and the Myanmar military government-backed Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone Management Committee is managing it.

The recently-signed Chines-sponsored Ceasefire Agreement between the Myanmar Military Government and the armies of rebelling Northern Alliance including the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Paloung National Liberation Army (TNLA) has included the absolute protection of Chinese investments and the paramount safety of Chinese citizens in Myanmar.

Aung Naing Oo, the Chairman of Myanmar Special Economic Zone Central Committee and a Minister of Myanmar military government, emphasized that there is an urgent need to coordinate more closely between all ministries involved to successfully complete the project on time.

Minister Aung Naing Oo also said at a press conference last month that the Kyauk Phyu Deep Seaport and the Special Economic Zone is expected to be a critical juncture for connecting markets in Asia, Africa and across Europe.

However, this new development has emerged amidst the recent battles in Rakhine State between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar Army. And recently towns after towns and army bases after army bases have been falling into the hands of AA.

Despite Myanmar Army’s desperate aerial attacks, artillery barrages, and the naval blockades, the rapidly-growing Arakan Army was able to conquer Palatwa Township in bordering Chin State and defeated the Myanma Army troops in northern Rakhine State and now dominating the North-Arakan region.

Business analysts say that the armed conflicts in Yan Byel (Ramree)Township next to Kyauk Phyu township is a constant challenge to the ambitious Deep Seaport project at Kyauk Phyu. The Bangladesh newspaper continued to state that as Myanmar navigates through political complexities and military engagements, the fate of the China-backed Kyaukphyu Deep Seaport project remains uncertain, contingent on the delicate balance between military activities and economic aspirations.

Dividing Union-of-Myanmar into North-Burma and South-Burma

In writer’s own opinion the widespread rumours circulating among us Burmese, that Chinese President Xi Jinping had talks with President Biden when he visited San Francisco on 15 November 2023 and secretly agreed to divide Myanmar into the North-Burma  and South-Burma between China and USA, are just a laughable fantasy joke, hopefuly.

In reality, both presidents have forgotten the existence of the Fourth World Military Power, India, which has ongoing border clashes with China, and which is a nucler-powered nation, and most populous country in the world. India will not be just lying down while US and China dividing Burma between them.

And also the idea that two powerful countries with different political systems agreeing to divide a small geopolitically important country is now in European War History Museums, I believe. The division of Burma will not happen immediately for at least two years, the expected life people have now given to Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing and his universally-hated Myanmar Army of War-dogs (Sit-Khway).

There we go, you grab the top part and I get the bottom, yummy!

Bully China’s Unneighborly Behavior

China applying intense pressure on Min Aung Hlaing Government at last January 7-8-9 ceasefire meeting between Myanmar Army and the Northern Allinace Armies to stop the fightings immediately, to open cross border trade as soon as possible, and to protect the Chinese citizens in Burma is surprisingly unneighborly behavior towards Myanmar.

The Ceasefire Agreement resulting from that meeting brutally forces Myanmar Army to give up, forever of course, the towns and military bases they have lost since 27 October 2023, and to stop hostilities so that the speedy resumption of border trade is to begin immeditely, and thus to let the Northenr Alliance Armies, which control the Union Highway where the most goods are flowing, start collecting custom-duties and road taxes and vehicle tolls from that multi-billion dollars trade between China and Burma.

But certalinly the Northern Alliance Armies will not follow that Agreement to the letter. For even the Chinese Ambassador to Mynmar wrote in a letter that “except MNDAA which already has the whole Kokang, the AA and TNLA now occupying only some parts of their desired territories they dreamt of will not totally obey the Ceasefire Agreement”.

Sounds like China is tightly holding Myanmar Soldiers’ hands behind while letting AA and TNLA soldiers hit them hard on their bellies. Min Aung Hlaing has been doubly fucked in the arse by his Chinese masters.

AA and TNLA have managed to capture Myanmar towns and cities in northwest Shan along upper-China-border line, but the Naungcho-Kyaukme-Thipaw-Lashio region along lower-China-border line have not been captured yet. So now they are just waiting patiently while still harassing Mynmar Army in those areas.

Like in the Camel & Arab story, Burmese foolishly let China build a pipeline and
then later Chinese send in their proxy armies to kick the stupid Burmese out.

Waiting to Occupy the Whole Border Line

Right now under China’s watchful eyes the Northern Alliance armies will never dare to seize Muse City despite the ongoing harrassments. Ninety percent of China-Myanmar trade flowed through Muse which is underseige but still controlled by the Myanmar Army. But the Union Highway into Muse is completely controlled by the Northern Allance ethnic armies and they will collect road-tolls from all incoming trucks.

While China seems to have ordered AA to attack and capture the Myanmar Army’s bases and towns along the Kalartan River so that rival India will not be able to proceed with its ambitious Kaladan Project Along the Kalartan River.

Kaladan (Kalartan) River is the river in Paletwa, Chin State. India will build a deep seaport in Sittwe and will carry goods with small ships, each of which can carry 300 tons of cargoes, from the deep seaport to Paletwa. Myanmar is now building the Kaladan river-crossing bridge expected to be finished next year. Then Myanmar can send mostly Indian goods from the deep seaport in Sittwe via Paletwa by crossing Mizoram State to the middle areas of India.

But AA will never dare to attack Kyauk Phyu City where the Chines Deep Seaport is to be located, for Chian does not want any accidental damage to their precious properties at the port facility.

Still many fierce battles are continuing in Kyauk Taw, Myauk Oo, Min Pyar and Yan Byel towns just at the north of Kyauk Phyu. So just like in Muse in Shan-North, those who want to ship goods to any part of the world through Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone will have to pay taxes to AA which controls goods flow routes to North Rakhine, just like MNDAA and TNLA.

So once AA occupies Ran Byel and Ramree Island, even the Myanmar Government will have to pay AA custom duties and taxes if it has to send goods through southern sea route thorugh Kyauk Phyu Port.

TNLA Chief Tar Bone Kyaw claimed China gave green light for Operation-1027.

If China has actually given the so-called green light to Northern Alliance’s now-famous Operation 1027 as claimed by the TNLA, the only possible reason was China wanted to directly control the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor through the Northern Alliance armies, her proxy armies. China has stopped trusting any Myanmar government since the Chinese-funded four-billion US$ Irrawaddy Myitsone Mega-dam Project was suddenly suspended by Thein Sein Government in 2011.

China seems to have seen the serious threats of Russia taking over almost all Myanmar Government projects including the Nuclear Power Station Project along the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor just after Min Aung Hlaing’s February 2021 coup.

The Dividing Line and The Confederation of Ethnic States

The obvious North-South dividing line cutting through Burma would not be a straight horizontal line as there are so many possible ethnic states, at least seven or even more, in the Northern Burma. Major ethnic groups like Kachins, Shans, Kokangs, Kayahs (kareni), Wa, Palaungs, and Chins will have their own states while Arkans also will definitely have Northen Arakan State.

All those ethnic groups have direct connections to China by race or by political influences or by economic reality. Their common language would become Mandarine and their common currency would definitely be Chinese Yuan as Burmese currency is becoming worthless. So all those northern ethnic states of Burma will become a confederate and eventually and, sadly for any Burmese like me, a so-called autonomous ethnic state of China like Uyghurs’ Xinjiang.

But who will control the Burman divisions and remaining two ethnic states in South-Burma? The rebelling NUG (US-based National Unity Government) with its 400,000-strong PDF (People Defence Force) obviously will become the official government within two years the expected life of failing and disgraced Myanmar Army.

Only remaining problem is what would happen to Karen and Mons? Mons are already absorbed into Majority Burmans and Karens will be demanding their own administrative-state or division within South-Burma. Karens are free from China and not adversed to US as they are already advised and funded by the CIA. So the Mandalay, Magway, Sagaing, Pegu. Rangoon. Irrawady, and Tanintharyi will become seven divisions of South-Burma together with large Karen and small Mon states.

Viola, the nearly 8-decades-long Burma Problem has been solved by Presiden Xi and President Bidden in only one meeting at San Francisco on 15 November 2023. Notoriously long Burmese Civil War is over! And so is the nearly 80-years-old Union of Burma.

Update on March-3 from Yunan, China Peace Conference.

1) Myanmar Military Government is to recognize the MNDAA as the official government of the Kokang-Special-region.

2) Myanmar Military Government is to recognize the towns and villages captured and occupied by the AA, TNLA, and MNDAA as their own.

3) Troops from both warring sides are to stay put at where they are now and to avoide any hostile contacts.

4) AA, TNLA, and MNDAA are to protect China’s national interest and also to avoid any actions that wil adversely affect China’s national interest.

5) At Chin-shwe-haw Border Gate Myanmar Militay Government will post its own Custom, trade inspectors, and Immigration, but jointly with respective agencies from Kokang MNDAA.

6) MNDAA will take 70% of total tariff collected from the China-Burma cross border trade. Myanmar military government agrees to take only 30% of that tariff, and the following is the updated map of divided Burma

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Looks like China has decided that the Trans- Burma Pipeline, the No-man land controlled by China's proxy armies, will be the new border-line between China's North-Burma and US's South-Burma?