(Translation of Steven Sanyu’s post from his FACEBOOK pages on 16 June 2026.)
Will the
Wa Army (UWSA) be going into a war with the Arakan Army (AA)?
So
far, for many years UWSA has managed not to participate in the ongoing civil
war between Myanmar Army and other ethnic armies such as AA (Yakhine Army),
TNLA (Palaung Army), KIA (Kachin Army) and MNDAA (Kokang Army) even though the
Wa were the ones making massive profits selling assault rifles and
heavy-machineguns and ammunitions to other ethnic armies except KIA Kachins who
have their own weapon manufacturing plants.
That
long stalemate is going to change very soon as both their Chinese Masters and
Myanmar Army generals now need them to annihilate the recalcitrant Yakhines
(Arakaneses) of victorious AA in the western Myanmar State of Arakan.
Even with massive Chinese assistance in the form of advance war-drones and many billions of Chinese Yuan, Myanmar Army war columns many thousands-soldiers-strong have not managed to break through the AA defensive lines on the high hills and mountains of long Arakan Ranges (Arakan-Yoma) between the Proper Burma and Arakan State.
According to Chinese PLA sources President Xi Jinping of China and so-called President Min Aung Hlaing of Myanmar had met recently and secretly agreed to let UWSA absorb the important border regions of Kengton and Tarchileik (unofficially known currently as the Wa South Territory) on Thai Border into the newly-formed Wa State now only recognized as WA Self-administered Region, not as a full-fledged sState yet. The newly-promised Wa State to the UWSA would cover a large territory from China-Burma border in North to Thailand-Burma Border in the South.
In return the UWSA has agreed to eliminate the AA forces from the region of Kyaukphyu so that massive Chinese investments such as Natural Gas and Crude Oil Pipelines, Deep Sea Ports, and Kyaukphyu-to-Kuming Railways are protected.
But for the Wa the secret deal will give them their long-dreamt-of territory and also near-impossible dream of Statehood inside the Union of Myanmar. Maybe having hyper-inflated sense of their military prowess, UWSA probably is truly believing that they could easily crush the relatively young AA.
It would be an interesting war, for the UWSA and AA both have nearly equal military strength (about 50,000 strong infantry forces) and basic weapons and equipment needed to fight a sustained land-war. But UWSA has obvious backing from both China and the Myanmar Army and that will be an influential factor in deciding who would eventually win the coming war.
