(Zaheena Rasheed’s article from the ALJAZEERA NEWS on 01 February 2021.)
At polling stations in Myanmar’s largest city,
Yangon, the enthusiasm was palpable. “People are excited to vote, as they would
like to escape from the political struggles,” one poll worker said at the time.
“They want real democracy.” Trouble, however, was already brewing.
Just days before the polls, Myanmar’s powerful military chief Min Aung Hlaing had raised the possibility the army may not accept the outcome of the election. Accusing Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s government of “unacceptable mistakes”, he told a local news outlet that “we are in a situation where we need to be cautious” about the results of the poll.
Aung San Suu
Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) went on to secure a landslide
victory, taking more than 80 percent of the vote and increasing its support
from the 2015 vote. But the result drew immediate allegations of fraud and
calls for a rerun from the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development
Party (USDP).
The Tatmadaw, as
the military is known, supported the USDP’s assertions, claiming without proof
that its own investigation had found 10.5 million suspect votes. Then, on
Wednesday, Min Aung Hlaing threatened to repeal the constitution. The apparent
coup threat prompted widespread international condemnation and the military
walked back its warning, saying the media had misinterpreted the general’s
comments.
But by Monday
morning, the threat had become a reality. Just 10 years after initiating a
transition to civilian rule, the Tatmadaw was back in control in Myanmar, with
top civilian leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint
detained, soldiers out in the streets and phone and internet services cut in
large parts of the country.
Hours after the
coup, the military declared a one-year state of emergency, using as a pretext
the NLD government’s alleged failure to act on its claims of “terrible fraud”.
It also pledged new elections, but did not provide a time frame, and announced
that power had been handed over to Ming Aung Hlaing.
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| Min Aung Hlaing formed 11-member State Administrative Council on February-2. |
Presidential ambitions
The general, who
is required by law to retire from his military post when he turns 65 in July,
has long harboured presidential ambitions, according to Melissa Crouch,
professor at the Faculty of Law, University of New South Wales in Sydney,
Australia. It was the USDP’s humiliating showing in the November election that
thwarted his goal, she said.
The Tatmadaw –
under a constitution it drafted in 2008 – already appoints 166 or 25 percent of
seats in the parliament, and the USDP would have needed to secure another 167
seats to appoint Min Aung Hlaing as the country’s president. But the party won
only 33 of the 498 available seats, while the NLD took 396.
Crouch said
Monday’s coup – coming just hours before the new parliament was set to meet for
the first time – was fuelled by the military’s realisation it had no other
option to regain the presidency.
“To get the office of the president back in their
hands, they had to act outside of the law … And in a year’s time, they’ll allow
a fresh election to take place. If the USDP was successful in getting a third
of the seats, then it’s possible that Min Aung Hlaing could become president.”
Min Aung Hlaing,
previously a little known figure outside the army, was appointed as
commander-in-chief in 2011, just as Myanmar began transitioning to civilian
rule following 49 years of military governments.
When the NLD won
2015’s multi-party elections, the general began positioning himself as a
candidate for the presidency. He did not retire as expected in 2016,
transforming himself – with the aid of social media – from aloof soldier into a
public figure. Facebook pages dedicated to the general publicised his
activities, including visits to monasteries in the Buddhist-majority country,
and meetings with dignitaries.
One of the pages
had 1.3 million followers and acted as the military’s main outlet for
information, particularly during the Tatmadaw’s brutal crackdown on the Rohingya
minority in 2017. The operation – which included mass killings, gang rape and
widespread arson – drove some 730,000 Rohingya into neighbouring Bangladesh.
The following year, Facebook took down the two pages.
Both the United
States and the United Kingdom have since imposed sanctions on Min Aung Hlaing
over the campaign, which United Nations investigators said were executed with
“genocidal intent”.
Frontier Myanmar, a current affairs magazine based
in Yangon, said the fact that Min Aung Hlaing is “one of most wanted men on the
planet” due to his role in the atrocities committed against the Rohingya also
contributed to the general’s anxiety about his future. “Appointing a loyalist
to replace him as commander-in-chief would have helped, but that seemingly was
not enough to assuage his concerns,” it said in a commentary.
On Monday, the
US threatened new sanctions on Myanmar over the military’s “direct assault on
the country’s transition to democracy and rule of law”, while the UK said it
would work diplomatically with its allies to “ensure a peaceful return to
democracy”. Leaders from around the world also condemned the coup, but
neighbouring China – one of Myanmar’s most influential economic partners – said
it “noted” what happened and urged all sides to “resolve differences” to
maintain stability.
Business interests
The campaigners said businesses owned by Min Aung
Hlaing’s children have profited from their access to state resources during his
tenure and noted that as commander-in-chief, Ming Aung Hlaing has ultimate
authority over the military’s two major conglomerates – Myanmar Economic
Corporation (MEC) and Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL) – which hold
investments in various sectors, including gems, copper, telecoms and clothing.
UN investigators
have previously called on world leaders to impose targeted financial sanctions
on the two firms, saying the revenue generated from such businesses
strengthened the military’s autonomy from civilian oversight and provided
financial support for their operations.“If democratization progresses and there
is accountability for his criminal conduct, he and his family stand to lose
their revenue streams,” Justice for Myanmar said.
Other
campaigners agreed. “This is a Min Aung
Hlaing coup, not just a military coup,” said Mark Farmaner, director of the
UK-based Burma Campaign. “It is about his position and his wealth.”
‘Decisions of life and death’
Other analysts
said the military’s institutional interests were also at play. The NLD’s
election win put the military in a “weaker bargaining position”, said Bridget
Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham’s Asia
Research Institute in Malaysia.
The military’s
unelected parliamentary quota gives it veto power over constitutional
amendments, but “their position would have been weakened when there was a much
larger majority on issues of laws”, she said. “And that poses a great challenge
to the military’s position and authority in Myanmar.”
While Min Aung
Hlaing has successfully executed a coup, observers say questions remain about
his and the military’s ability to retain power. The NLD, in a statement
attributed to Aung San Suu Kyi, urged the people of Myanmar to “wholeheartedly
protest” against Monday’s coup, and analysts say the younger generation, who
have lived in a more open system, are likely to react.
“Most people in
Myanmar are probably not supportive of the coup,” said Jay Harriman, an analyst
at BowerGroupAsia. “They are likely wrestling with what to do, as we speak.
These are decisions of life and death. When they did resist the military
takeover in 1988, thousands were reportedly killed. And these events are likely
going through a lot of people’s minds as they think about what an appropriate
response is.”
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| In 1988 coup Burmese Army killed tens of thousands of people on streets. |
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