Tuesday, December 31, 2019

US-Controlled Iraq Near Collapse: Repeat Of 1979 Iran?


US caught off guard as protesters storm Baghdad embassy: Hundreds of protesters breached the outer walls of the heavily fortified US embassy compound in Baghdad on Tuesday, setting parts of its parameter on fire - an angry reaction to deadly US air raids days earlier against Kataib Hizbollah, an Iran-backed militia.

Most of the protesters, members of the paramilitary group Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces, or PMF), were clad in military fatigues. PMF is an umbrella organisation of several armed militia groups - including Kataib Hezbollah - funded and armed by Iran, but with formal links to the Iraqi armed forces. Shouting "Down, Down USA!", the crowd hurled rocks and water bottles and vandalised security cameras outside the embassy grounds.

The US said it launched the attacks on Sunday - killing at least 25 fighters - in Iraq and Syria in response to a rocket attack on Friday near Kirkuk, which killed an American civilian contractor - an assault Washington blamed on Kataib Hezbollah.

Iraqi caretaker Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi warned the protesters to leave the compound in an effort to bring the increasingly volatile situation under control. But Mahdi's warning appeared to have come too late.

Government security forces did not block militia members and their leaders from entering the heavily fortified Green Zone where the US embassy is located, a sign that the Iraqi government may not have full control over the current events.

With US personnel holed up at the embassy and exposed to risk, President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Iran and Iraq, writing on Twitter: "Iran has orchestrated the attack on the US embassy in Baghdad". He warned the US would "hold Iran for responsible" for the rapidly unfolding events in the Iraqi capital.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Prime Minister Mahdi and President Barham Salih that the US "will protect and defend its people, who are there to support a sovereign and independent Iraq", the State Department said in a statement.

A US government official told Al Jazeera, on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media, that "we are not going to mess around" in terms of protecting US personnel and facilities. He also said the Iraqi government was obliged under international law to protect the embassy.

Doug Bandow, research fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera that US and Iraqi officials were unprepared for the tensions. Bandow, who served as special assistant to US President Ronald Reagan, criticised the Trump administration for its "lack of good intelligence and understanding" of current Iraqi politics.

"The Trump administration has also poisoned its relations with Iran, which is the key player in Iraq, when it pulled out of a landmark nuclear agreement with Tehran last year and imposed punishing sanctions against it," he said.

PJ Crowley, former US assistant secretary of state for public affairs, said that the Trump administration's strategy of ramping up political and economic pressure on Tehran - in the hope of bringing the Islamic Republic's leaders to the negotiating table to agree to another nuclear agreement - has for two years yielded no results. Crowley proposed that the larger issue should be about "shifting the focus from what the US is doing in Iraq to what Iran is doing".

Memories of Iran in 1979: Bandow argued that US leaders should be feeling nervous because Iraq now has a weak and "headless" government, a political environment similar to Iran in 1979 when a group of Iranian students took over the US embassy in Tehran and held 52 American citizens and diplomats hostage for 440 days.

More recently in 2012, a Libyan armed group stormed a US compound amid political vacuum and chaos resulted in two US personnel being killed, including the US ambassador to Libya. Bandow said however that the Hashd al-Shaabi militia and their sponsors in Tehran understand the risks of escalating the confrontation, because they realise they would lose in a military showdown. The near-future, he said, "depends on how the Iraqi government manages the current crisis".



Hundreds of protesters surrounded the United States embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday to demand an end to US "intervention" in the country. Raising flags of the powerful paramilitary group Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), the crowds chanted "down, down USA".

Tuesday's rally was completely distinct from the recent, months-long protest movement which has seen tens of thousands of Iraqis demonstrate against the political establishment. Most at the US embassy, supporters of the Hashd Al-Shaabi, were dressed in army fatigues as they gathered around the heavily fortified embassy in the Green Zone, where government buildings and foreign embassies in Baghdad are based, arguing in favour of a state-backed militia.

Within hours, dozens had broken into the embassy compound after smashing a main door and setting fire to the reception area, according to witnesses. Protesters told Al Jazeera that they stormed the embassy in response to US air attacks over Kataib Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria.

At least 25 members of Kataib Hezbollah forces, which belongs to the PMF, were killed and 51 others were injured in the attacks on Sunday. The US said it launched the air attacks in retaliation to a rocket attack on Friday near Kirkuk - a raid that killed an American civilian contractor, and that Washington blamed on Kataib Hezbollah.

"We are the Hashd and we are here to take revenge," said a protester in his 40s, who refused to give his name for security reasons. "We [are] protesting here to condemn the US strikes on the Hashd," said Haydar, a protester in his 20s. "The Hashd are the ones who protected Iraq against terrorism." The Iran-backed Shia paramilitary group was aligned with the Iraqi government in its battle against the ISIL (ISIS) group. It was formally incorporated into the Iraqi military in July 2019.

As the sun set on Baghdad, members of the crowd told Al Jazeera they would try to erect tents for the night and that they were prepared to launch an open-ended sit-in around the embassy until they saw action taken to "end US presence and intervention in the country".

"We call on the Iraqi parliament to take action against the US. We want the Americans out," said Haydar. Ali, who described himself as a PMF supporter, said: "We came to mourn the people who died as a result of the US strikes in Qaim and to condemn the source [US] of all evil in Iraq since 2003. "We are here because we are against US presence in Iraq and its targeting of the Hashd al-Shaabi and we won't leave until parliament and the government puts an end to that."