(Fahd Bin Zahed’s post from the JAKARTA POST on 21 May 2025.)
Will US-China tug of war ensue over Rakhine State?
Growing US interest in Myanmar’s Rakhine State could prompt China to ramp up
its backing for the military junta in Naypidaw.
In mid-April, the arrival in Dhaka of three United
States State Department officials, two deputy assistant secretaries and the
charge d’affaires in Naypidaw, signaled the first signs of a critical
engagement between US officialdom and the Muhmmad Yunus’s interim government
since it took charge in August 2024.
Following the August 2024 political transition, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Yunus appears to have adopted a new geopolitical orientation, seemingly opening the country to Western interests, both political and economic.
The Bangladeshi media had little to report on what
precisely was discussed about Myanmar. But the involvement of the newly
appointed National Security Adviser (NSA) Khalilur Rahman in the controversial
issue over the repatriation of Rohingya refugees and the appointment of Sufiur
Rahman, a former ambassador to Myanmar, as Chief Adviser Yunus’s special
assistant in the Foreign Ministry, is by far the clearest evidence that Dhaka
will play a key role in a security matrix that includes the US and Myanmar.
Since the arrival of United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Dhaka in March, when the Rohingya repatriation issue took center stage, and the discussions that the three State Department officials had with key functionaries of the Yunus administration, there has been a notable shift in Dhaka’s focus on facilitating “humanitarian” aid to Myanmar’s Rakhine State.
Initially, efforts by Bangladesh centered on
repatriating 1.4 million Rohingya refugees from the Cox’s Bazar camps where
they have been living in terrible conditions since 2017. However, a new tack
involved advocating a “humanitarian corridor” to the Rakhine State, citing
ostensible “famine-like conditions” and “starvation” in the non-Rohingya region
controlled by the Arakan Army.
Bangladeshi analysts have severely criticized the
Yunus government’s proposed humanitarian corridor, which is seen as lacking
“legitimacy under international law” as it would be initiated “without the
consent” of the Myanmar government, which in turn could raise “serious legal
and diplomatic concerns”.
There has been close engagement between the
Bangladesh authorities and the Arakan Army since at least December 2024.
However, analysts point out that “recent unauthorized incursions [into
Bangladeshi territory], including cultural engagements, heighten the risk of
cross-border instability and challenge national sovereignty”.
This pitch for a humanitarian corridor for the
Rohingya repatriation is interpreted by some as a way to build a link that
would provide US-backed logistics and supply support for the Arakan Army. While
there are claims that the humanitarian corridor could be used for funneling
“non-lethal” supplies to the Rakhine State, in line with the objectives of the
US’ Burma Act, the role that the Bangladesh Army might play in channeling
logistics and provisions to the Myanmar region could have a security dimension.
The Bangladesh Army could, in principle, play a
crucial role in providing logistics and supplies to the Arakan Army.
Bangladeshi and Indian media reports suggest a deepening tie between the US and
Bangladeshi militaries, reflected in the confabulations between a senior
American general and the Bangladeshi Army establishment.
While this highlights the influence the US is
currently exerting in the region, the evolving geopolitical situation is
complicated by the role that China might play in the context of Myanmar.
Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Myanmar
military junta chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing met in Moscow where the former
expressed support for Naypidaw’s development “suited to its national
conditions, safeguarding its sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity
and national stability, and steadily advancing its domestic political agenda”.
This could only mean full Chinese support to the
junta in the event the Arakan Army seeks to launch a military offensive aimed
at capturing Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung townships. While China has been a
staunch ally of the Myanmar military junta, it made significant investments in
Kyaukphyu in the Rakhine State, most notably a special economic zone and a
deep-sea port, and in other parts of Myanmar which Naypidaw controls.
This strategic Rakhine State township is the
“terminus” of a US$1.5 billion oil and natural gas pipeline that runs to
Kunming in China’s Yunnan province. Besides, Chinese projects under its Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI) are sources of concern for the economic leverage that
Beijing would exercise over Naypidaw.
Besides Kyaukphyu, the Rakhine State capital, Sittwe, is also a strategic township as it forms a critical link in India’s Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project that aims to provide an “alternate outlet” to the country’s landlocked northeast. There is no denying that Myanmar in general, and the Rakhine State in particular, are geo-strategically important for both China and India, which explains why Beijing and New Delhi have maintained ties with the military junta.
New Delhi has not made any statements on the Arakan Army’s growing closeness with Dhaka, but it will be keen to protect its interests in the Rakhine State. On its part, Dhaka too will have to contend with Myanmar’s military junta, which will likely not agree to the “humanitarian corridor” proposal since their agreement will be essential.
This will not only leave the Rohingya in limbo but
defeat the very purpose of the humanitarian passage originally aimed at
repatriating them to their home districts in the Rakhine State where there is
continuing violence and uncertainty.
So, far from resolving the Rohingya issue, the
Bangladesh interim government’s proactive policy on the Rakhine State, the
Bangladesh Army’s role in providing supplies to the Arakan Army, the likely
opposition by the Myanmar military junta to the proposed humanitarian corridor
and China’s unstinted support to safeguard Naypidaw’s territorial integrity
could turn the region into a geopolitical hotbed in the months to come.
(Fahd Bin Zahed is a senior lecturer at Centre for Peace Studies, North South University, Dhaka.)
Something Massive to happen on Myanmar-Bangladesh border?
New Delhi: Something Massive to happen on
Myanmar-Bangladesh border? US Air Force officers set up base in Dhaka. In a
major development amid the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, a
team of United States Air Force (USAF) officials arrived in Dhaka, the capital
of Bangladesh.
In a major development amid the escalating tensions
between India and Pakistan, a team of United States Air Force (USAF) officials
arrived in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The purpose of their visit is to
inspect arrangements prior to the arrival of a “heavy cargo aircraft.”
According to the reports, the four-member team
landed at Dhaka’s Shahjalal International Airport on May 8 via Qatar Airways
flight OR-641. It is being claimed that these officials are linked to the
Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
The large cargo aircraft arriving in Dhaka is
reportedly intended to transport materials into Myanmar via the Bangladeshi
border. There are suspicions that the cargo may contain dangerous weapons.
Recently, reports also surfaced alleging that the United States has been
sending military aid to rebel groups in Myanmar through the Bangladeshi border.
The USAF members who have arrived in Dhaka include
Tara Lynn Alexandria Strider (Logistics Director), David Thomas Riefenber
(Product Sales Manager at DFS Group Limited), Michael Cody Thacker (Senior
Director of Logistics and Fleet Management), and Staff Sergeant Martin Lucas
Vannoorsdall. According to the Northeast News report, all of them are staying
at the Westin Hotel in the Gulshan area of Dhaka.
Al Udeid Base Connection
Bangladesh’s security services sources have
informed that the USAF officer who arrived in Dhaka is connected to the Al
Udeid Air Base. It is important to note that this air base is located about 65
kilometers from Doha. Al Udeid Air Base is also known as Abu Nakhlah Airport.
It hosts various military assets and coalition forces. It serves as the
headquarters and logistics base for American operations in Iraq. The base
features the longest runway in the Gulf region.
Al Udeid hosts the USAF’s 379th Air Expeditionary
Wing. It is the home base for the US Central Command and the Royal Air Force’s
No. 83 Group RAF. The 379th Air Expeditionary Wing plays a crucial role in
providing combat air power and essential functions such as aeromedical
evacuation and intelligence support across multiple regions.
Bangladesh Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman went on a two-day visit to Qatar on May 3. He was accompanied by Brigadier General Ghulam Mohiuddin Ahmed, who is the Director of the Ordnance Organization Directorate. They both traveled via Qatar Airways flight QA-639. The arrival of this heavy cargo in Bangladesh has sparked various discussions.
Sources from Bangladesh’s security services have
reported that the four USAF officers will remain in Dhaka until a cargo
aircraft carrying large containers arrives at Shahjalal International Airport.
These containers may contain lethal weapons, which could then be transported by
road to the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. If these are indeed advanced weapons,
significant changes could emerge in Myanmar’s ongoing civil war in the near
future.
American Soldiers arrive at Cox's Bazar Beach area, Bangladesh.
With Starlink being active in Bangladesh few days earlier, something is cooking around Bangladesh as this is the first time since 1971 when foreign Troops are stationed in Bangladesh.
