(Assum & Chutikul’s article on the BANGKOK POST on April 21, 2021.)
General MAH will be hanged very soon. |
On Jan 31, the politicians the coup makers wanted to
arrest had all assembled in Nay Pyi Taw for the next day's installation of
newly elected members of parliament. On Feb 1, shortly after their early
morning coup, the Tatmadaw's leaders probably slapped each other on the back
and congratulated themselves. Mission accomplished.
How wrong they were. As we know now, the Tatmadaw's violent act did not only contravene the constitution they themselves had put in place, it also showed how out of touch with reality the Tatmadaw leadership was. Over a short period of about 10 years the country had started to transform, and a new socio-political reality had emerged. A return to the dark days of military regimes was unimaginable. The Tatmadaw had miscalculated their move.
Myanmar's people
took to the streets with peaceful demonstrations and resistance actions that
have been on our TV screens for close to 12 weeks now. First in the major
cities, and then spreading to the far corners of the country. Citizen
journalism reached new heights as ordinary people took risks, determined as
they were to show each other and the world what was happening.
The Tatmadaw's
second miscalculation was that the more than 20 Ethnic Armed Organisations that
mostly operate along Myanmar's borders, would support the coup. This did not
happen. Some wavered for a while, but given the huge popular resistance to the
junta, most have now openly rejected the new regime.
Due to these two
miscalculations, the regime's State Administration Council (SAC) does not have
effective control of Myanmar. It does control its own military structures and
operations which it uses with mind-boggling callousness against peaceful
demonstrators and against anyone who expresses opposition to the illegitimate
regime. At the same time, however, it has failed to gain control over many
critical civilian structures and institutions. Without these, it cannot run the
country.
The Tatmadaw's coup has failed. Civil protests
against military rule are nationwide. In order to reduce risks in the face of
relentless onslaught, they have quickly become more diverse and sophisticated.
While protests continued, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH)
composed of duly elected parliamentarians, the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM),
general strike committees, ethnic armed organisations and others have become
the face of national resistance.
They have brought focus and cooperation across the opposition movement. Despite horrific and indiscriminate violence by the security forces, they have persevered. Due to their efforts the normal operations of many public institutions have stopped. Public service delivery in critical sectors like health, transportation and education has halted. Local administrations in villages, wards and districts are increasingly bypassing the SAC regime, taking matters into their own hands. International trade has halted, many factories have closed, and the banking sector is seriously affected. The economy is on its knees.
As violence escalated, the CRPH, in consultation
with many stakeholders, did what one would expect a serious government to do.
It drafted a charter, set out a roadmap and abandoned the 2008 constitution.
This led to the appointment of the National Unity Government (NUG) on April 16.
Preparations for a National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) are underway.
It is clear that the SAC regime cannot govern effectively, even though it still controls the important communications sector which it has used to stifle freedom of expression and information sharing about what is happening around the country. Its large-scale internet blackout has also disrupted vital communications for business, farming and other operations.
Moreover, it is
a mistake to believe that the Tatmadaw has a monopoly on the use of violence.
It never had and it does not have it now. With its coup and subsequent actions
it has actually rallied most ethnic armed organisations against it. Violent
clashes have increased substantially since Feb 1.
The
international community should realise that dealing with the SAC implies
dealing with the leaders of a failed coup. Not only do they lack legitimacy,
they also lack effective control of the country. Asean has called a special
leaders summit on the situation in Myanmar to take place in Jakarta this
Saturday. If the summit goes ahead as planned, and if Asean wants to play a
constructive role, it should realise that it will make matters worse if it
limits its interactions to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the
failed coup.
Myanmar's
socio-political landscape has changed dramatically. If Asean does not recognise
this, it will not only set its summit up for failure, it will also have to
share responsibility for the regional effects of the coup's aftermath, such as
refugee flows, substantial and long-term reduction of trade and investment and
increased regional instability, including cross-border crime.
Above all, Asean
will damage its own reputation and thus its ability to respond to other
regional crises. It should rise to the occasion and underpin its
Myanmar-related efforts by engaging the National Unity Government and other key
stakeholders.
To keep the
momentum of engagement going, as an immediate step, Asean should consider
appointing a special envoy with an urgent mandate to consult widely, including
with UN organisations and key countries with a stake in the region.
The envoy would
also help determine how the international community through Asean might play a
constructive role, considering the widespread popular support for federal
democracy and societal change that will lead to a more peaceful, flourishing
and multicultural Myanmar. In doing so, Asean should accept that a return to
the situation that existed before the coup is no longer an option.
(Laetitia van den Assum is a former Dutch ambassador and member of the former Rakhine Advisory Commission. Kobsak Chutikul is a retired ambassador of Thailand and a former elected member of parliament.)