(Staff article from the REUTERS on April 28, 2021.)
The Karen National Union (KNU), Myanmar's oldest
rebel group, said its fighters had taken the army camp on the west bank of the
Salween river. Thailand said it was ready to provide humanitarian but stressed
it was not taking a side in the conflict.
WHO ARE THE KNU? The KNU is the dominant political organisation representing ethnic minority Karen communities in Karen, or Kayin, State, bordering Thailand. Its aim is self-determination for the Karen people in a region of about 1.6 million people, roughly the size of Belgium, where they are the ethnic majority in the state.
Marginalised in
then Burma's post-independence political process, the KNU started a rebellion
in 1949, which it waged for nearly 70 years. One of its key grievances was the
majority Bamar community's dominance of Myanmar's state and military.
BAD BLOOD
The KNU and its
military wing, the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), have historically
been one of the biggest adversaries of Myanmar's military, or Tatmadaw as it is
known.
Activists have
accused Myanmar soldiers of atrocities against the Karen, including murder,
burning villages, forced labour, torture and systematic rape of women and
girls. The military has suffered many losses to Karen guerrillas.
After a
semi-civilian government initiated broad reforms in 2011, the KNU joined
Myanmar's Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), touted as the first step
towards a federal system, but the coup has cast doubt on the deal's future.
RENEWED CONFLICT
The coup has
added to the deep scepticism and mistrust of the Tatmadaw among ethnic minority
forces and the KNU says the military has expanded into more Karen territory. It
said the truce is over and has declared its support for the largely urban
pro-democracy movement behind mass protests and civil disobedience.
Military jets
last month launched the first air strikes on KNU territory in 20 years after an
attack on a post by KNU fighters that killed 10 soldiers. KNU forces have been
attacking Myanmar army positions and trying to cut off supply routes,
triggering sporadic clashes and air strikes.
ANTI-JUNTA
ALLIANCE?
Myanmar's
pro-democracy forces have sought to bring the KNU and other ethnic minority
armies into an alliance against their common enemy, the Tatmadaw, which is
struggling to govern.
A parallel
administration, the National Unity Government, which says it is the legitimate
authority in Myanmar, wants the insurgents to form a "federal army"
with a say in Myanmar's future after the defeat and disbandment of the
Tatmadaw.
The KNU has been
protecting pro-democracy protests in its area from the security forces. Other
guerrilla forces, including the Kachin Independence Army in the north and
Arakan Army in the western Rakhine state, are also supportive of an the
anti-junta coalition.
EXODUS TO
THAILAND
Thousands of
Karen villagers have fled to Thailand in recent weeks. The KNU has urged
Thailand to give sanctuary to its civilians if fighting intensifies, as it has
done in the past. Thailand on Tuesday said it would provide shelter, food,
medicine and water at its border to civilians fleeing fighting, and keep moving
them to safer areas if required.
Thailand has
been criticised previously by some activist groups and accused of being
reluctant to fulfil its humanitarian obligations. It faces a big refugee burden
if fighting is sustained.
TURMOIL AHEAD?
Despite having
fewer troops, less firepower and no air assets, an alliance of ethnic armies
could pose a significant problem to a Tatmadaw that has to fight on several
fronts. But such a conflict would be a long and bloody one and any armed
alliance would face challenges with resources and weaponry, or be susceptible
to power struggles, factionalism or external intervention.
The military
mastered divide-and-rule tactics during its 49-year rule of Myanmar and might
strike deals of its own to weaken its opponents. Should the resistance movement
prevail over the Tatmadaw, a political transition could be fraught with
problems.
