(The Declaration from the GBDECLARATION.ORG on October 4, 2020.)
Coming from both the left and right, and around the
world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown
policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public
health.
The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.
Keeping these
measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage,
with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.
Fortunately, our
understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from
COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the
young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms,
including influenza.
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of
infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all
populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections
is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a
vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm
until we reach herd immunity.
The most
compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd
immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their
lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection,
while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused
Protection.
Adopting
measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health
responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with
acquired immunity and perform frequent testing of other staff and all visitors.
Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have
groceries and other essentials delivered to their home.
When possible,
they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and
detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households,
can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public
health professionals.
Those who are
not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple
hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be
practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and
universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities,
such as sports, should be resumed.
Young low-risk
adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other
businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should
resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society
as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who
have built up herd immunity.
(On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored
and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:
Dr. Martin
Kulldorff, professor of
medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with
expertise in detecting and monitoring infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine
safety evaluations.
Dr. Sunetra
Gupta, professor at
Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine
development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.
Dr. Jay
Bhattacharya, professor at
Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health
economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and
vulnerable populations.)
